Following up with yesterday’s poll, three star 4 costs are in an interesting place, where they are all VERY strong right now, but people’s expectations of what is strong has gone up a lot, so the perception is they are very weak.

First, data can make this weird to analyze, because if you have a three star 4 cost on 6-1, no matter which one it is you have a Top 4 rate of 97.4%…but that’s because you’re alive on 6-1. Survivor bias really kicks in here, so that’s not surprising at all.

If we go back to 5-2, we can get a better picture. Hitting one at 5-2 should feel like a high roll…so how often are people not Top 4-ing? Here’s the best and worst three:

-Annie3: 96.5%
-Syndra3: 96.1%
-Galio3: 94.1%

-Ornn3: 89.6%
-Morgana3: 86.1%
-Nautilus3: 85.7%

Three star 4 costs are also unique in that often it’s their spell shape that can make or break them. The difference between a Morgana first ult hitting back line vs front line is massive. A Nautilus who misses the enemy backline vs hitting them makes a massive difference. Not something easily fixable by simply increasing their numbers.

This is just one of many spaces in terms of set design and balance we need to keep an eye on. The moment when you hit one should feel exciting, as it triples or quadruples your champs output…but that line between strong and too strong is razor thin. Too strong and it becomes the primary win condition for players. Too weak, and it creates massive disappointment moments for players.

Anyway, that’s it for this morning. We’re finalizing 14.7 today and work continues on so many future projects. Exciting stuff! Until next time, take it easy 🙂

Link to Mortdog’s original post on X/Twitter